Data Story: Can the Latino vote make a difference in the Midwest?
by Leonardo López Carreño
As the midterms are approaching, there is plenty of conversation about the role that Latino voters will have in these upcoming elections. 2022 will be a benchmark year for Latino voters for multiple reasons: according to the Pew Research Center, 34.5 million Hispanic Americans will be eligible to vote this year, making up 14.3% percent of the potential electorate.
Polls have historically struggled to accurately track the Latino community’s engagement in elections. Dr. Rodrigo Dominguez Villegas, the Director of Research at UCLA’s Latino Policy and Politics Institute, says that this is partly due to traditional tracking methods. Dominguez-Villegas says that polls “tend to over-sample people with a college degree or above,” and that “a lower proportion of Latino voters have a college degree than, for instance, white voters.” This is especially the case in the Midwest, since there is a lower concentration of Latinos and they are less likely to have a college degree.
Regardless, Latinos in the Midwest can still play a significant role in midterm elections, especially considering that states like Michigan and Ohio are generally considered to be “swing states.” The following chart uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, in November 2020, to show what percentage of eligible Latinos are registered to vote in each Midwestern state, as well as other relevant data.
Looking at his research, Dr. Dominguez Villegas expects a big turnout from Latinos. He believes that the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court “has energized the democratic base” and that it has especially energized Latina women. “We see abortion quickly rising in the issues that are important for Latino voters.”
This mobilization didn’t happen overnight. Multiple Latino grassroots organizations have been working hard to engage Midwestern Latinos who didn’t vote in past elections. Francisco E. Segovia, the executive director of the Minnesota-based organization COPAL (Comunidades Organizando el Poder y la Acción Latina), says that many Latinos that he has spoken to were hesitant about engaging in politics.
This issue affected him directly, as he says that “when I was able to vote in the United States, I was not doing [it], because I couldn't link my life with people running for office.” He felt that candidates would “come cyclically, every two years or every four years, saying ‘vote for us because we’re the best’.” Segovia felt like this wasn’t enough for them to connect with him and the issues in his day-to-day life.
However, he eventually came to the realization that “the person who may get elected without your participation is going to decide how much you are going to be making, whether you have access to health[care] or not, and many other things that will impact your life.”
He asked himself, “would you like to participate to at least decide who you want that person to be? Or just let someone else rule your life without you intervening?” This is the story that he shares with other Latinos through COPAL, in hopes that they will also choose to take action.